Handicapping the budget vote

The Knox County Commission has committee meetings scheduled Monday and Tuesday before the entire body takes up the mayor's proposed budget on Wednesday. If last week's interminable and almost entirely pointless "review" of the proposed grants budget is any indication, many of us could be eligible for Social Security before a budget is passed.

It probably won't come to that, of course. From where I sit, Ragsdale is close if he doesn't already have the votes to pass his budget on first reading, warts and all. What follows is pure Kentucky windage. Nonetheless, if a binding vote was on tap today, here's my "handicapper:"

	% Probability of a "Yes" vote
Ballard	100
Hammond	100
Smith	100
Campen	90
Strickland	90
Wright	85
McKenzie	75
Norman	75
Rountree	70
Lambert	60
Briggs	50
Daniels	50
M. Harmon	50
Leuthold	25
Davis	20
Pinkston	15
DeFreese	0
I. Harmon	0
Moore	0

Tally: 10 likely yes 6 likely no 3 ?